When trading any market, whether financial or sporting, remember - 'the trend is your friend'.
Trying to find the top or bottom of a financial market will often produce higher returns, but more times than most it is difficult to predict and therefore many traders find themselves being forced to close their trades before they become profitable, or at least at their maximum potential profit. It's much easier to 'go with the flow', and follow the trend, rather than battle against it.
Sports markets offer valuable trend trading opportunities, and one clear example is with the in-play Next Goal market on a football game. This market should only be traded during the last 10 -15 minutes when there is sufficient liquidity, a greater emphasis on time sensitivity and therefore more volatility in the market. The aim is to get a green book by only laying - laying every selection in the market with the over-round over 100% to produce a green book.
Event - Switzerland v Czech Republic
Market - Next Goal
Outcomes (3)
Switzerland
Czech Republic
No Goal
As each minute goes by without a goal being scored what will occur in this market?
1.) The probability of there being No Goal will increase and therefore the price will shorten as time ticks away.
2.) As the price on No Goal contracts, those offered on the two teams to score will drift higher (the probability of either of the teams scoring diminishes).
The 3 Trades
The most important part of this strategy is understanding which order you need to lay the three selections.
Which prices are going up and which ones are going down? (Two teams are going up because as time goes by, they are less likely to score. No Goal is shortening all the time)
Do you want to lay each runner at the highest or lowest prices? (Lowest possible)
1.) Lay the outsider of the three outcomes (Czech Republic) - the market says they are the least likely to score so it will cost you more as their price drifts. There's a high chance liquidity on this option will be weakest too.
2.) Lay the second of the teams (Switzerland). Click payout - enter the amount that would have to be paid out and then submit your bet. NB. Should you not get matched and then decide to alter the price you will have to click payout again to reset the lay amount.
3.) Enter a lay order below the current price on 'No Goal'. The longer you wait the greater the risk, but also the greater the return on your investment.
Get each one matched before moving onto the next stage!
Then sit back, pray there is not a goal, and wait for your third order to get matched.
Other important points:
1.) The closer the over-round on the Lay side is as to 100% means you will need to be in a trade for a shorter time as the market has strength and some liquidity. But remember you can set the market yourself
2.) Lay the second outcome as soon as possible after the first.
3.) Enter the lay order at the price you want immediately so as not be tempted into moving the goal posts from the levels you clearly defined before entering the trade.
4.) The key to getting this right is getting the payout figures correct. The What If option and Payout button should ensure you even up your figures.
5.) This is best done late in the game when the No Goal price is dropping rapidly. No need to get involved until 70 minutes into the match at least.
6.) Just hope that there is not a goal!
Step 1 - Lay the outsider
Czech Republic - 75 min
Notice the over round is 97.7% so a 2.4% move would create a profitable trade. Remember, you eventually want to lay all three options at above 100% to lock in a profit.
Step 2 - Lay the second team
Switzerland - 75 min
To determine stake click payout (5 and 23.70 = 28.70). Payout = the worst 'red' you are risking PLUS the 'green' you are trading off.
Step 3 - Enter Order to Lay 'No Goal'
Level chosen 1.4...entered 76 min
Remember to click payout and enter maximum payout (17.33 and 11.37 = 28.70). Payout = the worst 'red' you are risking PLUS the 'green' you are trading off.
And then hope the price will get matched to produce a green book.....
Price matched in the 85 min (ten minutes after the first trade was entered)
You could actually do the same strategy in reverse by only backing. You'd take No Goal first, and then the two teams. But there is no 'Payout' option to balance out the book when you are backing, so you'd need to get out the calculator or use the What If function.